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Unlucky luck

XymoXXymoX
edited August 2019 in Discussions
I have a problem and i would like to know if i am alone to be in trouble with skeewed probabilties. 
Here is my problem : during the last 3 weeks, i bought, with keys or diamonds, 18 ritual chests (EDIT : 20 ritual chests a day later)  and i obtained, guess what ? ...0  mythical tokens ! Nothing ! Nada ! Z !
Given the odds, a beautiful 20%, i expected 2 or 3 chests full of myhtical tokens, but nothing ! 

Dear players, did  you expérience the same unfavorable odds ?

Thanks for your answers and feel i am not alone to be abandoned by luck ;))
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Comments

  • simbasimba
    Remember, each time you open a Mythical chest, the odds are 4 to 1 against your getting a Myrhical gem.
    The number of chests you open does not change those odds, each time you open a chest, it is an independent event.  The odds are so bad that as much as I love opening chests, I won’t waste any diamonds on them.  Grand chest odds are even worse.
  • LiquidMinstralLiquidMinstral
    Still, at a stated 20% odds, regardless of each being an independent event, he still should have received about 3 mythics out of the 18. Yes, he could have had an incredibly bad streak of luck, like flipping heads 5 times in a row, it's just rather unlikely, if the game mechanic is truly set to 20%. It seems like in actuality (based on informal observations) it's more like a 10% mythic payout, which makes the 0 out of 18 not nearly as difficult to occur.
  • XymoXXymoX
    Thank you for your explanations. Of course there are independant draws but the odds can not be of 0% for each draw .  i totally agree with liquidminstral 
  • BizzoBizzo
    edited August 2019
    Doesnt matter if its independant events or not. The median average is accross the board, 1 in 5 chance, is 1 in 5 chance. Lotto tickets have successive loosers too, you dont find a winner every 5 tickets.
  • XymoXXymoX
    So be it !
    Empirical  odds are very different : 20 trials and 0 win. Theoretical odds and probabilities doesn’t  mean  anything for normal players, raw data do ! 
  • zzzzzzzz
    You are not alone @XymoX

    If it wasn't for bad luck, I'd have zip, nada, 0 luck at all, unless you consider more Bog Mage gems lucky.



  • XymoXXymoX
    Still nothing after 22 chests
    @zzzz  we are  « Bugged » mages
  • zzzzzzzz
    Another 105 Bog Mage from the Legendary chest today <sigh>
  • LiquidMinstralLiquidMinstral
    I truly did laugh out loud at that one.
  • XymoXXymoX
    Less funny for me...23th chest....and still no Mythical gemmes

    i swear that if i win i ll pay my round of Bog Mage gems to Zzzzzz so that you will be able to lvl up a second character !
  • simbasimba
    Sure hope you are not spending precious diamonds on these chests!  As much as I enjoy opening the chests, i refuse to use diamonds, or buy keys in any of the other shops.  I have the same luck you and zzzz have.
  • XymoXXymoX
    edited August 2019
    Yes ! Since the odds turned to be so much  skewed  i decided not to use diamonds to open ritual chests and convinced the members of my guild to spend their diamonds in more predictable and usefull purposes ! 
  • SteppenwolfSteppenwolf
    edited August 2019
    Same luck here too! It’s so BAD I refuse to spend any real money on the game and have all of my guild mates doing the same. Why would any sane person spend real money on a “zero” payout? LOL You have better odds beating Vegas at the BlackJack tables!

    Dang....I just knew the developers wanted to make money at this???? Guess they must like going home BrOkE!!!!
  • LiquidMinstralLiquidMinstral
    With free-to-play games, It's always a delicate balance between making a great game that people love, and making enough money to sustain the game, without making it pay-to-win. I know the devs are working hard to strike that balance and they will continue to make adjustments to make it the best game they possibly can. That being said, yes the chests are not a good buy right now.
  • HägarHägar
    I'm thinking about the "goal" of this game for a while, especially after reading all the posts about "pay-to-win" or "not being able to win" the game. I don't think you can "win" the game. It has no specific end point. Once enough players have maxed out creatures the devs just invent a new series of creatures to keep the game going. Their goal is to earn money off the game. The players goal should be to enjoy some hours of play and maybe spend some money as acknowledgement to the devs that they did a great job.
  • XymoXXymoX
    edited August 2019
    24th chest and still no Mythical gems
  • XymoXXymoX
    Damned ! I won’t be able to buy the 110 euros packs for 3 Mythical runes and runites ! ;))
  • XymoXXymoX
    I would have prefered to give you some good news about my luck but it’s impossible : a 25th chest and still nothing. 
    If a dev could give me an advice : should i stay or should i go, because luck will never turn to be favorable ?
  • BedazzleBedazzle
    XymoX.  I hope you are only using keys to unlock mythical chest.  Better to just slowly accumulate 3 Bellowkin gems from Hero shop at a time.  At least it is 100% guarantee you will get 3 mythical gems. Lol. 
  • XymoXXymoX
    Thank you Bedazzle. I used for the most part keys and sometimes, but rarely, diamonds. For sure i m not encouraged to use diamonds (and real money) !
  • XymoXXymoX
    And of course I buy gems with the various tokens available as much as possible ... but it is soooo long ! 
  • HägarHägar
    A few days ago, I got 1 AshValkyrie gem in a chest as reward on either HA or defeating a boss with my guild. There are only 224 to go for this one. At this rate I'm dead before I get anywhere. I look at Mythical gem like the old style Legendaries. You got lucky to get any gems. So, I just disregard the Mythicals. They will not feature in my plans. If I get some great, if not so what. I'm interested to get some Runins...
  • XymoXXymoX
    what is very disturbing in my disluck is that we need a lot of gems to lvl up Mythical characters. if it is impossible to get gems in chests it will be virtually impossible to lvl up like other players like ComancheFlight, to take an extreme exemple, who has lvl up the 3  mythical characters available to 9 or 10. How can we have pleasure to play when the odds are so imbalanced ? Maybe I should stop the game. 
  • HägarHägar
    Be glad that you still have something to do in this game. If you already have leveled up the Mythicals to lvl10 what else is there to do? Must be pretty boring to soundly trounce everyone else without even trying...
  • XymoXXymoX
    27 chests and still nothing....
  • SleipnirSleipnir
    Hey XymaX I stole your share of the chest luck I guess. I got 70 odd Verveille (the green mythic) in my very first sumptuous chest. And ever since, they’re just giving me a bucketload of common gems, but I am still picking up the odd mythic here and there, I have about 130 all told, but I buy the 3 as often as I can in HA shop. 
    However... gaining on the swings and losing on the roundabouts, so to speak... my Hero Arena luck went from an amazing season last week, such that I got elevated to the heady realms of the legends league !!! to being roundly trounced in almost every match this season. Looking forward to returning to the home comforts of GM3 next week.
  • XymoXXymoX
    The same for me ! Trounced, that’s the word ! By a difference of 100 to 200 hp and against weaker opponents. Actually, since the beginning of the season I  recorded 30 losses against 22 wins. These are fair odds ;))
  • XymoXXymoX
    Still no mythical gems 
  • SleipnirSleipnir
    I can’t wait for the day you tell us you got some mythicals !
  • XymoXXymoX
    I will say it here ! I promise ! 
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